Production Forecast Imbalances and EPIAŞ Balancing Costs
Renewable energy plants deviate from their day-ahead bids by an average of 8-15%. ML forecasting models reduce this imbalance by 45%, lowering imbalance costs of 150-300 TL/MWh.
Turkey's energy sector is under pressure from YEKDEM feed-in tariffs, EPIAŞ balancing costs, and the need to integrate increasing renewable capacity with AI-assisted production forecasting. Corius develops ML production forecasting systems, AI agents, and custom software that reduce imbalance costs by 45%, minimize unplanned outages by 60%, and provide 72-hour early fault detection.
Turkey's energy market rule sets, EPIAŞ balancing costs, and EPDK licensing/reporting requirements make standard software solutions inadequate. Corius combines deep energy market expertise with machine learning to develop solutions that reduce imbalance costs, minimize unplanned outages, and maximize profitability.
LET'S DISCUSS YOUR PROJECTWe have deep technical knowledge about EPIAŞ DAM/IDM rule sets, YEKDEM tariff calculation mechanisms, and EPDK reporting and license compliance requirements. Our models are trained with the latest market data.
Our models support OPC-UA, Modbus TCP, and IEC 61968/61970 (CIM) protocols. We provide seamless integration with your existing SCADA/EMS infrastructure regardless of brand or model. Integration architecture is designed at the start of the project.
In Enart Energy's ML production forecasting project for a 15 MW wind farm, EPIAŞ deviation cost decreased by 43% and fault detection accuracy reached 91%. Our models provide measurable ROI within 4 months.
Research on energy companies shows that Turkey's energy sector is under pressure from YEKDEM feed-in tariffs, EPIAŞ balancing costs, and the pressure to integrate increasing renewable capacity. AI production forecasting, predictive maintenance, and market trading solutions address these challenges; at least 72% of companies' top three problems relate to forecasting, maintenance, and data fragmentation.
Renewable energy plants deviate from their day-ahead bids by an average of 8-15%. ML forecasting models reduce this imbalance by 45%, lowering imbalance costs of 150-300 TL/MWh.
Turbine, transformer, and pump faults lead to unplanned outages and high repair costs. Predictive maintenance reduces unplanned outage times by 60%, significantly lowering maintenance and spare part costs.
Field sensor data, SCADA logs, and market prices are isolated; managers lack decision support. Data integration provides 360-degree visibility and enables instant, data-driven decisions.
Guaranteed price producers cannot optimize their YEKDEM contracts without proper forecasting; this creates a gap between planned and realized production. Day-ahead and intraday models close this gap, increasing revenue by 65%.
Distribution companies and large consumers cannot see which hours are peak or off-peak; this leads to scheduling inefficiencies and tariff selection errors. Smart load forecasting models provide hourly forecasts and anomaly detection.
Production activity reports, capacity notifications, and license exemption applications require manual data entry and template preparation. Our AI agent automates these processes, reducing preparation time from weeks to hours.
Inability to store energy during low-price periods and inability to participate in ancillary services limits revenue and operational flexibility. Battery storage and virtual power plant (VPP) models provide arbitrage and ancillary service revenue.
Solutions integrate with your existing SCADA/EMS infrastructure to reduce operational costs and increase profitability.
Our ensemble models combine numerical weather prediction (NWP), satellite images, your plant's historical production (SCADA) data, and topology to provide the highest accuracy. Minimize your imbalance costs and enter the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) and Intraday Market (IDM) with the most accurate production schedule.
Turbine or inverter faults can lead to weeks of production loss. With our predictive maintenance models using your SCADA data and sensor data such as vibration, we predict potential faults weeks in advance, planning maintenance activities at the most optimal time and eliminating production interruptions and maintenance costs.
Our ensemble hybrid model including XGBoost and ARIMA pulls hourly DAM/IDM prices, your load profile, and renewable production forecast to create the most profitable bidding strategy. The output connects to the EPIAŞ notification system and is presented to traders. YEKDEM-guaranteed producers can optimize their YEKDEM contracts.
AMI data, weather conditions, and sector consumption profiles combine in an ML model to create hourly load forecasts. Supports peak shaving, demand-side bidding, and abnormal consumption detection (on-off-peak localization detection) for distribution companies and large consumers.
Our AI agent automatically collects production realization data, contract information, and EPDK regulatory requirements to prepare production activity reports, capacity notifications, and license exemption applications. Pulls data from ERP and generates documents in ISO 9001 audit format.
Do You Have a Different Energy Sector Need?
We also offer solutions for grid balancing, storage, or PPAs in different areas. Share your dataset and goals, let's evaluate together.
INDICATE YOUR NEEDCorius uses sector-specific technologies for energy projects. We use LSTM and XGBoost models for production forecasting; InfluxDB and Grafana for predictive maintenance; ARIMA and OR-Tools for energy trading; OPC-UA and Modbus protocols for SCADA integration; and PostgreSQL and Power BI for reporting.
Elsan Energy
With the AI agent platform, faulty work orders decreased by 40%, field intervention time improved by 55%, and project costs decreased by 20-30%.
Our field coordination has completely changed — now we see problems before they happen.Review Our Case Study
Enart Energy
Fault detection accuracy reached 91% with ML model in epoxy composite blade material production.
Machine learning identifies hidden micro-defects in material testing that manual inspection cannot see.Review Our Case Study
In a free preliminary analysis meeting, we analyze your SCADA/EMS infrastructure, EPIAŞ market data, and production forecasting needs to identify the starting point with the highest ROI potential. Let's determine your plant optimization opportunities together.